In Arthur D. Little’s newly released study, A Trillion-Dollar Opportunity, the consultancy maps out how buy now, pay later (BNPL) solutions for B2B commerce could redefine global trade. The report argues that BNPL is no longer a niche financial tool but a strategic lever for liquidity, efficiency, and growth across supply chains. It outlines a market evolving under pressure from liquidity constraints and a rapidly digitizing economy, where flexible payment terms can unlock substantial transaction flows. As digital ecosystems mature, ADL sees B2B BNPL moving from novelty to necessity for businesses seeking resilience and scale. The paper also places the spotlight on regional momentum, notably in the Middle East and Europe, where policy support and sectoral adoption are advancing at pace. Taken together, the findings position B2B BNPL as a potential catalyst for a seismic shift in how global trade is financed and managed.
Global market landscape and growth potential for B2B BNPL
The report anchors its analysis in the scale of contemporary B2B commerce, estimated at approximately 120 trillion dollars in 2022, underscoring the enormous opportunity for BNPL in business-to-business transactions. This market’s size creates a broad runway for new payment models that can streamline working capital and optimize supplier-buyer relationships. ADL projects a future where B2B BNPL accounts for a meaningful slice of total B2B payments by the end of the decade, with a target range of roughly 15 to 20 percent by 2030. Such penetration would translate into transaction volumes in the vicinity of 25 to 30 trillion dollars, marking BNPL as a dominant feature of corporate payment behavior. The analysis emphasizes the scale of the potential revenue pool, given that BNPL typically carries a per-transaction fee of about 3 to 4 percent, implying a market value swing of approximately 700 billion to 1.3 trillion dollars if adoption reaches the upper end of expectations. This projected monetization reflects the combination of higher average spend, larger deal sizes, and longer settlement periods that characterize B2B engagements compared with consumer BNPL models. The report highlights that BNPL is projected to become a core instrument in embedded finance architectures, intertwining payment terms with procurement platforms, ERP systems, and supplier networks. In this ecosystem, BNPL is not merely a payment option but a strategic capability that enhances liquidity, reduces days-sales-outstanding (DSO), and lowers working capital volatility across complex supply chains. Beyond raw market size, ADL identifies a qualitative shift: BNPL is evolving from a financing mechanism to a core business capability that supports growth, resilience, and global competitiveness. The authors stress that the shift is driven by demand for agility, risk management, and the capacity to standardize cross-border payments, currency settlement, and risk-sharing across diverse market environments. The combination of these factors, according to the study, makes B2B BNPL a structural transformation rather than a temporary trend. The authors also note that the transition will be uneven across sectors, geographies, and company sizes, with mature economies and digitally mature industries likely to lead the move. At the same time, the report contends that smaller enterprises, particularly SMEs, stand to gain the most from accessible credit and streamlined accounts payable workflows, provided there is scalable risk management and robust platform interoperability. The growth trajectory hinges on continued innovation in credit scoring, data-driven underwriting, and integration with existing financial and ERP ecosystems, ensuring that BNPL can deliver instant approvals and predictable repayment schedules at scale. The combined effect of these dynamics is a multi-year horizon of accelerated adoption that could redefine the architecture of B2B payments, with BNPL embedded into everyday procurement decisions rather than treated as an optional finance tool. The interaction with other fintech innovations—such as supply chain finance, dynamic discounting, and receivables financing—could further amplify the velocity of adoption, creating a networked financial environment where suppliers and buyers interact through standardized, tech-enabled credit facilities. In sum, the global BNPL opportunity in B2B markets rests on a convergence of liquidity needs, digital enablement, regulatory alignment, and a willingness among corporates to rethink traditional trade-financing structures in favor of more agile, data-driven alternatives. This convergence sets the stage for a lasting transformation of the way businesses buy, pay, and finance global commerce.
BNPL as a catalyst for global trade and cross-border efficiency
The ADL study portrays B2B BNPL not simply as a new payment option but as a catalyst that can unlock broader efficiencies and risk resilience across international trade. By offering instant credit approvals, BNPL reduces the friction associated with traditional trade finance, including lengthy credit checks, letter of credit processes, and working-capital tied up in extended payment terms. The digital nature of BNPL enables standardization of payment terms across borders, significantly lowering the complexities that typically accompany currency exchange and settlement. This standardization can streamline supplier onboarding, reduce administrative overhead, and shorten cash conversion cycles, thereby enabling more predictable liquidity planning for both buyers and suppliers. The report emphasizes that the combination of faster approvals and standardized terms helps smaller suppliers — who historically bore the most rigid terms from lenders — gain access to favorable financing that was previously out of reach. For buyers, BNPL can translate into better cash flow management and improved negotiating power in supplier relationships, since they can commit to purchases with more favorable terms without sacrificing balance-sheet strength or market responsiveness. The study argues that BNPL’s templatization of payment terms—applied consistently across suppliers and geographies—reduces settlement risk and currency mismatches, which are common impediments in cross-border trade. The result is a more fluid, resilient trade finance landscape where companies can scale internationally with greater confidence. The report also highlights how BNPL supports embedded finance strategies, integrating with procurement platforms, invoicing systems, and ERP workflows to create a seamless financing layer within the buying process itself. In this view, BNPL becomes an integral part of the digital trade finance stack, enabling companies to close cycles faster, optimize working capital, and allocate capital to growth initiatives rather than financing costs. The strategic implications extend to risk management as well: by distributing credit risk across a network of buyers and suppliers, BNPL structures can be designed to improve loss-coverage dynamics and diversify exposure, which may improve overall credit quality for participating firms. The study also considers macroeconomic tailwinds—such as persistent liquidity pressures, inflation, and supply chain instability—that heighten the appeal of BNPL as a flexible, low-friction financing approach. Taken together, BNPL is positioned as a tool that can unlock additional trade volumes that might otherwise be constrained by the cost and rigidity of traditional letters of credit and bank-based financing. The research concludes that, as adoption deepens, BNPL could help standardize and de-risk international trade in ways that broaden participation across geographies and industry sectors, ultimately contributing to a more integrated and resilient global economy.
Regional momentum: UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the GCC
ADL’s report draws particular attention to the regional momentum in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and the broader Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as a proving ground for B2B BNPL adoption. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have introduced regulatory frameworks designed to support the deployment of BNPL solutions, signaling a policy environment that encourages fintech experimentation while aiming to protect consumers and businesses alike. In Saudi Arabia, for instance, Foodics has rolled out one of the early B2B BNPL platforms tailored for its food and beverage clients, enabling them to procure subscriptions and hardware on BNPL terms. This example illustrates how BNPL is being woven into sector-specific ecosystems, where industry players with specialized needs can leverage flexible financing to accelerate procurement and technology adoption. In parallel, the Saudi fintech Mala has secured a seven-million-dollar investment to bolster its B2B BNPL offering, underscoring investor confidence in regional BNPL platforms as levers for SME liquidity and growth. The UAE, for its part, has seen Comfi announce a five-million-dollar debt facility intended to accelerate the platform’s growth trajectory, reflecting a broader push in the region to scale BNPL ecosystems through strategic credit facilities and partnerships. The GCC context highlights several competitive advantages: digitally sophisticated small and medium-sized enterprises, a policy environment conducive to fintech experimentation, and a growing appetite for cross-border commerce with Asia and Europe. The convergence of these conditions creates fertile ground for BNPL platforms to mature rapidly, integrating with existing payment rails and trade-finance ecosystems in ways that can reshape regional trade dynamics and, by extension, global trade flows. The report notes that regulatory clarity and risk controls in the GCC are critical to sustaining long-term BNPL growth, emphasizing the need for standardized disclosures, robust customer protection, and transparent credit terms as the market expands. Beyond the GCC, the regional developments in the UAE and Saudi Arabia are presented as a blueprint for other emerging markets seeking to balance innovation with prudence in financial services. The narrative suggests that success in these markets could catalyze similar BNPL adoption in neighboring regions, where government digitalization agendas and private-sector investment in fintech solutions align to reduce transaction costs and improve supplier-buyer liquidity. The GCC case study thus serves as a practical demonstration of how BNPL can be scaled in a way that respects local regulatory regimes while delivering tangible improvements in cash flow management for both buyers and sellers.
Germany as a case study in B2B BNPL scalability
Germany serves as a telling example of how B2B BNPL could scale within a mature, digitally oriented market. The report notes that in 2022, B2B online sales in Germany reached approximately 467 billion dollars, a substantial figure that represents 6.4 percent of the country’s total B2B commerce. This data point demonstrates the enormous scale of online channels within a well-developed economy, and it also indicates the potential for BNPL adoption to mature alongside a strong digital penetration. The German online B2B market is described as five times larger than Germany’s B2B online consumer market, underscoring the substantial opportunity for BNPL to reside within enterprise procurement and supplier networks rather than consumer platforms alone. This contrast highlights the structural advantages of aB2B BNPL rollout in markets with high digital readiness, robust logistics infrastructure, and sophisticated SME ecosystems. The German case emphasizes how BNPL instruments can be embedded across multiple layers of B2B commerce—from procurement portals and supplier catalogs to invoicing platforms and ERP systems—creating a cohesive financing layer that supports rapid payment cycles and improved liquidity. The report argues that the German market exemplifies the scalability potential of B2B BNPL in a context where there is substantial digital adoption, strong credit bureaus, and advanced data analytics capabilities that can support risk assessment and underwriting at scale. The German narrative also illustrates the importance of interoperability with existing financial architectures and compliance regimes, including data privacy, anti-fraud measures, and cross-border transaction management within the European Union. The takeaway from Germany is that even in economies with high digital maturity, BNPL adoption remains highly contingent on the alignment of regulatory frameworks, data infrastructure, and financial services ecosystems. The region demonstrates how BNPL can be integrated into a mature supply chain, enabling large enterprises and small suppliers to benefit from standardized credit terms, faster payment flows, and greater predictability in cash management. The German experience also reinforces the broader thesis of the report: BNPL is scalable when it is supported by data-driven underwriting, seamless technology interfaces, and a governance framework that balances growth with risk management. As BNPL continues to diffuse across Europe and beyond, Germany’s example offers a template for how large B2B ecosystems can leverage BNPL to optimize working capital, reduce administrative complexity, and accelerate the digitization of trade.
SMEs, liquidity needs, and the operational impact of B2B BNPL
A central concern of the ADL study is the liquidity strain facing small and medium-sized enterprises and how B2B BNPL could alleviate systemic frictions in trade finance. SMEs currently rely heavily on trade credit to finance their day-to-day operations, with estimates suggesting that trade credit accounts for roughly 30 to 50 percent of global B2B transactions. This reliance on supplier credit can place substantial credit risk on suppliers, potentially tightening liquidity for vendors and constraining growth for buyers who struggle to access timely financing. The report argues that BNPL offers a compelling alternative that reduces the administrative burden associated with traditional credit arrangements, enabling instant credit approvals and more predictable repayment schedules. For suppliers, BNPL can translate into immediate payment with streamlined invoicing and payments that align with buyers’ procurement cycles, thereby improving cash flow and reducing the risk of delayed payments. For buyers, BNPL introduces flexibility in repayment terms, which can help optimize working capital and preserve liquidity for investments in growth opportunities, technology, and product development. The study emphasizes that the adoption of B2B BNPL goes beyond merely shifting payment terms; it can fundamentally streamline business processes by integrating credit approvals into the procurement workflow, reducing the need for manual credit checks, and automating risk assessment through digital data streams. The reduction in administrative overhead is particularly meaningful for SMEs that lack extensive treasury resources. By standardizing and digitizing payment experiences, BNPL can minimize errors, speed up settlements, and decrease the operational drag on accounts payable and receivable teams. The report highlights that such efficiencies contribute to broader organizational benefits, including improved supplier relationships, better compliance with internal controls, and enhanced visibility into cash flows across the enterprise. The digital nature of BNPL also enhances cross-border transaction capabilities for SMEs, enabling smoother currency exchange, settlement, and reconciliation processes that would otherwise add layers of complexity and cost. Mohammad Nikkar, a principal at Arthur D. Little in the Middle East, emphasizes that BNPL’s adoption goes beyond traditional payment methods; its digital framework standardizes terms and reduces currency exchange and settlement hurdles. He notes that BNPL is redefining the future of trade financing for businesses navigating today’s fast-changing economic environment and is becoming an essential tool for sustaining growth. The analysis also underscores potential risks and implementation challenges for SMEs, including the need for robust data governance, fraud prevention, and regulatory compliance. For BNPL platforms to deliver sustained value to SMEs, they must offer reliable risk modeling, scalable underwriting, and seamless integration with enterprise systems, ensuring that the benefits of instant credit do not come at the cost of heightened credit losses or a lack of transparency. The study suggests that when implemented thoughtfully, BNPL can unlock higher liquidity, reduce working-capital volatility, and enable SMEs to pursue strategic investments, expand product lines, and enter new markets with greater confidence. The overall implication is that BNPL is not merely a financing tool but a facilitator of operational excellence, enabling SMEs to navigate the complexities of modern trade finance with greater efficiency and resilience.
How B2B BNPL works in practice and its effect on cash flow and risk
The ADL analysis delves into the mechanics of B2B BNPL, showing how digital platforms transform payment experiences in ways that support both efficiency and financial resilience. At a practical level, BNPL platforms provide instant credit approvals that leverage data-driven underwriting, streamlining credit checks that historically slowed procurement cycles. This immediacy supports buyers in committing to purchases without the conventional delays that are typical of tradable credit facilities. For suppliers, BNPL translates into faster payment realization, reducing DSO and improving overall cash conversion cycles. The streamlined workflow often includes automated invoicing, integrated payment rails, and real-time reconciliation, which can substantially lower administrative burdens and minimize reconciliation errors. From a risk perspective, BNPL can distribute credit exposure across a portfolio of buyers, diversify risk across sectors, and employ dynamic risk scoring that adapts to changing economic conditions. The report highlights that such risk management, when executed with a robust data backbone, can preserve lender and supplier confidence while enabling broader supplier participation in BNPL networks. The financial efficiency gains are not limited to liquidity; BNPL can also enable more favorable terms for buyers, including extended payment windows that align with procurement cycles and the ability to negotiate discount terms tied to early settlement or performance metrics. This creates a feedback loop where improved liquidity facilitates growth investments, which in turn reinforces trading activity and BNPL utilization. The study emphasizes that BNPL is inherently suited to embedded finance, as it can be embedded within procurement platforms, ERP systems, and vendor catalogs, creating a frictionless experience for buyers and suppliers alike. This embedding helps standardize payment terms across the network, reducing currency exchange complexity and settlement delays, which are particularly important for cross-border transactions. The result is a more predictable and resilient financial operating model, characterized by transparent credit terms, improved cash flow, and reduced working-capital volatility across the organization. The report cites that BNPL’s capacity to deliver instant credit approvals, coupled with standardized terms, can transform how companies manage liquidity, align investment strategies with financial realities, and pursue strategic growth opportunities. The strategic implication is that BNPL is not a standalone feature but a core enabler of a new generation of trade financing—one that seamlessly integrates with digital procurement ecosystems and enhances the efficiency, speed, and reliability of B2B commerce.
Growth projections, digital transformation, and embedded finance
ADL’s projections indicate that B2B BNPL will experience sustained, double-digit growth as global commerce continues its digital transformation. The ongoing migration toward digital-first payment solutions is framed as a central driver of BNPL adoption, with businesses increasingly treating BNPL as a fundamental component of embedded finance strategies. The report argues that BNPL’s role in embedded finance goes beyond mere payment processing; it acts as a strategic overlay that integrates with procurement, invoicing, and ERP processes to deliver value across the entire transaction lifecycle. As digital platforms become more prevalent in B2B markets, BNPL enables companies to optimize cash flow, mitigate financial risk, and support long-term growth strategies. The research suggests that BNPL’s growth trajectory will be bolstered by enhancements in data analytics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning, which will improve risk assessment, underwriting accuracy, and customer segmentation. The combination of digital transformation and robust risk management creates a favorable environment for B2B BNPL providers to scale their networks, expand geographic coverage, and broaden the range of credit terms offered to different customer segments. The report notes that the overall market could benefit from the synergies between BNPL and other forms of trade finance, such as supply chain finance and dynamic discounting, which together can create a comprehensive financing ecosystem that supports end-to-end procurement and payment optimization. As companies increasingly adopt integrated procurement platforms, the BNPL layer is expected to become commoditized in the most positive sense: a standardized, reliable, and widely accessible option that partners can leverage to accelerate procurement cycles and stabilize cash flow. The research emphasizes that the pace of growth will vary by region, sector, and company size, but the overarching trend points toward broader adoption of BNPL across the global economy. The emphasis on embedded finance reflects a broader shift in the financial services industry toward offering financing capabilities as an integral part of commercial ecosystems rather than as isolated, external instruments. The study predicts that, as BNPL becomes more deeply embedded, it will support deeper supplier-buyer relationships and encourage new forms of collaboration that are anchored in liquidity, data sharing, and shared risk management. The projected high double-digit annual growth aligns with the digitalization of commerce and the increasing sophistication of BNPL platforms in underwriting, risk mitigation, and cross-border settlement. In sum, BNPL’s growth is inseparable from the broader digital transformation of trade finance and embedded finance ecosystems, which together will redefine how companies manage liquidity, assess risk, and pursue growth across borders and industries.
Implementation challenges, regulatory considerations, and risk management
Despite the favorable outlook, the ADL study recognizes a series of challenges that must be addressed to realize the BNPL opportunity at scale. Regulatory certainty and consumer protection considerations remain central to the deployment of B2B BNPL, particularly in cross-border contexts where compliance requirements can vary significantly. The report stresses the need for harmonized standards around disclosure, data privacy, anti-money-laundering controls, and risk-based underwriting to ensure that BNPL platforms operate with appropriate guardrails. The potential for fraud, data breaches, and mispricing of risk underscores the importance of robust identity verification, transaction monitoring, and advanced analytics. The paper argues that platforms must invest in strong governance, transparent risk metrics, and auditable processes to maintain trust among buyers, suppliers, and lenders. Operational interoperability is another key area of focus. As BNPL solutions must interface with a host of procurement tools, ERP systems, and payment rails, the industry needs standardized APIs, data formats, and security protocols to ensure seamless integration and reliable performance. The regional case studies—the GCC, with its regulatory evolution, and Germany, with its mature digital market—illustrate how regulatory and infrastructural maturity shapes BNPL adoption. The report suggests that countries or regions with clear regulatory pathways and supportive fintech ecosystems are more likely to experience accelerated BNPL growth, while those with ambiguous regulatory environments may see slower uptake or fragmented markets. The cost structure of BNPL platforms also warrants careful consideration. While BNPL can reduce the cost of capital by improving liquidity, providers must balance platform reliability, fraud prevention, and customer protection with competitive pricing. The study highlights that for BNPL to be sustainable, platforms must develop scalable underwriting models, maintain robust risk controls, and ensure that fees remain transparent and justifiable to buyers and suppliers alike. Another set of challenges centers on market education and adoption barriers. For large buyers and suppliers accustomed to traditional credit terms, the transition to BNPL requires a shift in mindset, process redesign, and the integration of BNPL into standard operating procedures. The report emphasizes the importance of customer education, vendor onboarding, and ongoing support to ensure that users understand the terms, benefits, and risks associated with BNPL. The potential for market concentration among a few BNPL incumbents also presents a risk, as it could affect competition, pricing, and the resilience of the BNPL network in the face of shocks. The study suggests that policy tools, competition oversight, and open banking frameworks can help ensure a healthy, competitive BNPL landscape that benefits SMEs and large buyers alike. The overall stance is that BNPL has great promise, but realizing its full potential requires coordinated action across policy, technology, and business practice to mitigate risks, ensure fair access, and maintain trust across the global trading system.
Conclusion
Arthur D. Little’s A Trillion-Dollar Opportunity presents a comprehensive vision of how B2B BNPL could reshape global commerce over the coming decade. The report contends that BNPL is more than a payment option; it is a strategic instrument for improving liquidity, accelerating procurement cycles, and stabilizing cash flows in a rapidly digitalizing economy. With a market potentially reaching trillions of dollars in transaction volumes at a fee level of a few percent per deal, BNPL could redefine how businesses finance operations, manage risk, and pursue growth. The regional momentum seen in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the GCC illustrates how policy support and fintech collaboration can accelerate adoption, while Germany demonstrates that even mature markets with strong digital ecosystems can realize significant BNPL gains through integration with procurement and ERP processes. SMEs stand to gain the most from BNPL’s promise of instant credit approvals and streamlined processes, provided there is robust risk management and interoperable technology. At the same time, the report cautions that success will require a balanced approach to regulation, data protection, fraud prevention, and clear governance to maintain trust and ensure sustainable growth. Ultimately, ADL’s analysis positions B2B BNPL as a transformative force in global trade financing, capable of delivering enhanced liquidity, reduced financial risk, and long-term growth by embedding flexible credit into the fabric of modern commerce. As companies continue to digitize and seek more efficient capital management solutions, BNPL stands ready to become an indispensable component of the next generation of trade finance, collaboration, and supply chain resilience.