In a recent post on the X platform, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, expressed his optimism about the prospects of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year. According to Sigel, the odds of such an event occurring are higher than what is forecasted by a popular betting market.
On January 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket estimated that the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 are around 77%. Sigel described this forecast as "underpriced," indicating that he believes the actual probability is even higher.
Sigel’s optimism mirrors industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Trump has expressed his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital," which has sparked hopes among industry players that a pro-crypto regulatory environment is on the horizon.
Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, allow users to trade contracts tied to specific events. The prices of these contracts fluctuate dynamically based on expected outcomes, making them a useful tool for gauging industry sentiment and predicting future events.
As of January 2, Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds had increased to approximately 84%, according to its website. This suggests that market participants are increasingly optimistic about the prospects of a Solana ETF listing in the US this year.
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares submitted requests to list spot Solana ETFs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, in August, the SEC reportedly challenged the plans, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.
The only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges are those based on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). These ETFs use an atypical "grantor trust" structure, which is typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Issuers have suggested that the success of proposed Solana ETFs may depend on whether they can conform to a similar structure.
Industry analysts believe that Trump’s presidential win has provided a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. In November, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high."
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US. This bullish sentiment is reflected in Polymarket’s forecast, which suggests that market participants are increasingly optimistic about the prospects of a Solana ETF listing in the US this year.
The odds of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are even higher than what is forecasted by Polymarket. Industry analysts believe that Trump’s victory has provided a green light for more crypto ETF listings, and market participants are increasingly optimistic about the prospects of a Solana ETF listing in 2025. With Polymarket’s forecast increasing to 84%, it seems likely that we will see several new types of crypto ETFs listed in the US this year, making 2025 a potentially banner year for cryptocurrency markets.
